Prediktivno modeliranje distribucije novoopisane endemične Dinarske vrste Cirsium greimleri Bureš
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54652/rsf.2024.v54.i2.593Ključne riječi:
Endemic, Greimler's thistle, predictive modelling, taxonomic complexitiesSažetak
Prema najnovijim podacima, Dinaride i Istočne Alpe naseljava endemična, diploidna, novoopisana vrsta Cirsium greimleri umjesto, do sada navođene, tetraploidne C. waldsteinii. Ova studija, koristeći podatke iz literature, herbarijske zbirke SARA i terenskih istraživanja, potvrdila je prisustvo vrste C. greimleri u Bosni i Hercegovini na 40 lokaliteta. Upotrebom MaxEnt modela i GIS alata izrađena je karta rasprostranjenosti i ekoloških niša za novu bh. vrstu, pri čemu su ključni faktori za njenu distribuciju identificirani kao srednja temperatura najvlažnijeg i najsušnijeg kvartala te količina padavina. Model je pokazao visoku tačnost (AUC vrijednost 0.970), što ukazuje na sposobnost preciznog razlikovanja područja sa i bez prisustva vrste. Pored toga, model je ukazao na prisustvo vrsta sa kojima C. greimleri često hibridizira (C. rivulare i C. erisithales) na više lokaliteta. Terenskim istraživanjima je potvrđeno prisustvo dilploidnih populacija istraživane vrste sa rasponom variranja nuklearne veličine genoma od 1.72 do 2.25 pg. Također, na osnovu prezentiranog prediktivnog modela je izvršena provjera odabranih lokaliteta na kojima C. greimleri koegzistira sa C. rivulare i C. erisithales. Tako je na lokalitetu Bistrica-Paljevina uočena populacija u kojoj su individue imale značajno iskazanu morfološku varijabilnost, što je i odgovaralo dvjema vrijednostima veličine genoma (1.76-1.82 pg i 2.22-2.25 pg). Ova studija ukazuje na potrebe daljih istraživanja problema simpatrije C. greimleri i njenih srodnika te neophodnu taksonomsku reviziju ovog kompleksa.
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